Autonomous Vehicles: No Longer a Shadowy Future. What's Next?
Google driverless car, with a test fleet of autonomous vehicles that as of October 2010 had driven 140,000 miles (230,000 km). |
Automation is here so to think that autonomous vehicles
(AV's) aren't on the horizon, the very near horizon, is setting yourself up for
failure. The benefits far exceed the
negatives:
- Elimination of driver restriction - Nearly anyone can use an AV
- Elimination of driver - An AV can drive itself without a circadian cycle (without sleeping)
- Elimination of parking scarcity - more space with less sprawl
- No more driving while intoxicated - You can still be intoxicated but you won't have to drive.
- Fewer crashes - and less lives lost
- More roadway
The list goes on for the positives of what this technology
is bringing to the table. I read something from a
forum poster on a popular site who summed it up rather well.
"By looking fixedly at (the negative) side of
the equation you can completely ignore the fact that, as the end result of
centuries of those sorts of displacement, the condition of humankind is
massively better then if those displacements hadn’t occurred." - Arpad
However, don't think it will take centuries to see the net
benefit. It is hard to believe someone
in a history book will look back and sum it all up as Michael Schermer has done
with many other aspects of life. Instead
we will see the benefits immediately.
With our ability to acquire and assimilate data through various methods
(cloud compilations are only the tip here) we will be constantly reminded of
how many fewer accidents there are, how many more people share mobility, and we
will laugh at the tedium of actual driving.
We're looking at emerging technologies right now that
overcome the hurdles set in place to make autonomous driving a reality.
- A negligible (if any) increase in infrastructure and likely a decrease as we can do away with a LOT of the road signs.
- Working at or above human standards - over all safe
- Cheaper costs - as implementation increases the cost will decrease (We see this everyday, our current iPhones are as powerful as the world's best super computers just 10 years ago for MUCH less)
We've already accepted with little debate autonomous
assistance in driving with assisted parking, back-up assistance, blind spot
coverage... we're proving everyday that computers are enhancing our lives on
the road. Isn't this the next logical
step?
From a personal point of view as a business owner--and of
course I'm bias--I would rather see an autonomous drone vehicle schlepping
cargo around on the road than a human, not only for that fact that they don't
need to sleep and only rarely stop, but also to take that person out of that
unhealthy and dangerous job. At first
that seems harsh but we've seen the impact long time driving has on truckers.
Within a year AV's will be as common or more common than our ever focused recon drones. Within 5 years we will see wide impact of AV's being implemented, and within a decade AV's will be an issue of the past. Perhaps the next debate should be what is the next
hurdle of implementation, legal, moral, media, or something else?