Autonomous Vehicles: No Longer a Shadowy Future

 Autonomous Vehicles: No Longer a Shadowy Future. What's Next?

Google driverless car, with a test fleet of autonomous vehicles that as of October 2010 had driven 140,000 miles (230,000 km).

Automation is here so to think that autonomous vehicles (AV's) aren't on the horizon, the very near horizon, is setting yourself up for failure.  The benefits far exceed the negatives:

• Elimination of driver restriction - Nearly anyone can use an AV
• Elimination of driver - An AV can drive itself without a circadian cycle (without sleeping)
• Elimination of parking scarcity - more space with less sprawl
• No more driving while intoxicated - You can still be intoxicated but you won't have to drive.
• Fewer crashes - and less lives lost
• More roadway

The list goes on for the positives of what this technology is bringing to the table.  I read something from a forum poster on a popular site who summed it up rather well.

"By looking fixedly at (the negative) side of the equation you can completely ignore the fact that, as the end result of centuries of those sorts of displacement, the condition of humankind is massively better then if those displacements hadn’t occurred." - Arpad

However, don't think it will take centuries to see the net benefit.  It is hard to believe someone in a history book will look back and sum it all up as Michael Schermer has done with many other aspects of life.  Instead we will see the benefits immediately.  With our ability to acquire and assimilate data through various methods (cloud compilations are only the tip here) we will be constantly reminded of how many fewer accidents there are, how many more people share mobility, and we will laugh at the tedium of actual driving.

We're looking at emerging technologies right now that overcome the hurdles set in place to make autonomous driving a reality. 

• A negligible (if any) increase in infrastructure and likely a decrease as we can do away with a LOT of the road signs.
• Working at or above human standards - over all safe
• Cheaper costs - as implementation increases the cost will decrease (We see this everyday, our current iPhones are as powerful as the world's best super computers just 10 years ago for MUCH less)

We've already accepted with little debate autonomous assistance in driving with assisted parking, back-up assistance, blind spot coverage... we're proving everyday that computers are enhancing our lives on the road.  Isn't this the next logical step?

From a personal point of view as a business owner--and of course I'm bias--I would rather see an autonomous drone vehicle schlepping cargo around on the road than a human, not only for that fact that they don't need to sleep and only rarely stop, but also to take that person out of that unhealthy and dangerous job.  At first that seems harsh but we've seen the impact long time driving has on truckers.

Within a year AV's will be as common or more common than our ever focused recon drones.  Within 5 years we will see wide impact of AV's being implemented, and within a decade AV's will be an issue of the past.  Perhaps the next debate should be what is the next hurdle of implementation, legal, moral, media, or something else?